Question of the Week: What kind of year are we in for? With that in mind, thanks for stopping by for my first weekly column of 2020. As usual, your tips and comments are welcome, and you can follow me through the week on the twitters. Here we go.
1) With a new Rhode Island General Assembly session set to start Tuesday, the conventional wisdom holds that beyond the budget and maybe the IGT/Twin River issue, not much of consequence will happen at the Statehouse since 2020 is an election year for state legislators. Yet a quick look under the hood reveals a whipsaw of cross-currents in the Ocean State. Bolstered by a long-runng national economic expansion, RI is enjoying a low unemployment rate. But in some cases, the more things change, the more they stay the same: another big deficit (roughly $200 million) needs to be wiped out, and that kind of red ink hinders the state’s ability to make smart investments. (And how much worse will things get when the national economy eventually takes a turn for the worse?) The healthcare sector is a top source of jobs in Rhode Island, but progress toward a combined Lifespan/Care New England/Brown University entity remains elusive. In Providence, the state’s largest school district remains without a permanent superintendent, underscoring questions about progress on improving the schools. And there are no visible signs of a compromise in the bitter fight between IGT and Twin River, key players in Rhode Island’s third-largest revenue source. There’s a lot more going on, particularly a presidential election and the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran. How much will things change in the year ahead?
2. Gov. Gina Raimondo plans to set the stage for her next budget proposal by delivering her State of the State address in the House chamber at 7 pm on Tuesday, January 14. The spending plan is set to emerge two days later, January 16.
3. ICYM: my year-end interviews with House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello, Senate President Dominick Ruggerio and Gov. Raimondo (part I, part II).
4. U.S. Sen Jack Reed on the Trump administration’s air strike killing a prominent Iranian general: “Soleimani’s direction of Iranian-sponsored terrorism has come to an end. His end is the beginning of a much more challenging and dangerous confrontation between the United States and Iran. Rather than achieving the stated intent of deterring additional attacks by Iran, I am concerned the Trump Administration significantly increased the likelihood for direct conflict, and, with it, the risks to Americans and our national interests. Killing Soleimani in this manner strengthens the hardliners in Iran and increases the likelihood that Iran’s proxies will be triggered into action. And if his killing results in America abandoning the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, it will be a coup for the Iranians. President Trump failed to consult with Congress. Now he must provide the American people, Congress, and the international community a thoughtful plan for what comes next. Our troops and diplomats deserve a strategy that is worthy of their sacrifice. War with Iran is not inevitable. Now is the time for restraint, diplomacy, and engagement. President Trump should choose that path rather than lurching into another disastrous military conflict in the Middle East.”
5. In recent comments to the Globe, Raimondo repeated something she’s talked about before (with WPRI, the ProJo and The Public’s Radio) – the possibility of using some of her ample campaign funds to influence legislative races in Rhode Island. If she follows through, that would be somewhat akin to how Republicans used the ‘nuclear option’ in the US Senate to move forward Neil Gorsuch’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2017. There was the time when former GOP Gov. Don Carcieri tried enlisting ‘dissident Democrats’ to change the dynamic in the House, but such efforts are uncommon. Whether Raimondo will follow through on her veiled threat remains to be seen. But even just her decision to discuss it with the largest newspaper in New England points to the ongoing chippiness in relations between her and Speaker Mattiello.
6. Asked if the estimated $200 million budget hole shows that the state is spending beyond its means, Sen. Louis DiPalma (D-Middletown) said on Political Roundtable, “I don’t believe that’s the case. The deficits come about because of out-year commitments the state has, and it’s really driven by three to five key issues. One of those is aid to cities and towns, driven predominantly by the car tax …. Education aid; we’ve increased that upwards of about $280 [million] to $300 million over the last nine years; expect about another $30 million next year. Health and human service growth is another piece of that. The gaming revenue has sort of plateaued out, that has come down some. That was an out-year issue. And one of the other issues we have to address is retiree healthcare and other benefits associated with that. We will get through this. It is a challenge at $200 million, so we have to figure out how to do that and we’ve done it in the past without raising [broad-based] taxes.”
7. The latest Census data shows a tiny uptick in population in Rhode Island, suggesting that the state has a smidgen of hope for retaining two congressional seats. State officials like Gov. Raimondo have placed their hopes on attempts to get a full Census count. But should there have been more of an effort, considering the potential loss in federal resources if the state’s House delegation gets cut in half? Should more consideration gone to offbeat ideas, like the proposal from Rep. Carlos Tobon (D-Pawtucket), to convince more people to move to the Ocean State? For now, the die is close to being cast, with immigrants propelling Rhode Island’s scintilla of population growth. Asked if Raimondo should have done more, spokeswoman Jennifer Bogdan offered this comment: “As you noted, the governor led the creation of the Complete Count Committee, which will be crucial for ensuing every Rhode Islander is counted. She’s said, we only get one chance at this and it’s critical that we get it right. In terms of potential population growth, more than 30 businesses have moved or expanded here as a result of our new development incentives, and we’re at an all-time jobs high. Those are some of the most significant ways the governor can have an impact in this sphere.”
8. While Sen. DiPalma and other observers say the state should be bringing more urgency to the effort to improve Providence schools, Education Commissioner Angélica Infante-Green defends the pace of change. “Since state intervention began in Providence just two months ago, we’ve moved forward on a number of important fronts,” she said in a statement. “We completed a comprehensive financial analysis of the district so we can reconsider how to leverage funding and bring support closer to students. We have revamped HR and are working to attract new talent to Central Office, including a new, highly skilled COO with experience in large urban systems. We are close to making a final decision on one high-quality curriculum for the district, which is being selected in conjunction with Providence teachers. We are working closely with the city to analyze the current capital improvement plan and discuss possible adjustments to speed up improvements and renovations on school buildings. We pulled together a robust Community Design Team that includes 45 educators, students, parents, and community leaders, who are actively working on strategies that will be included in a Turnaround Plan. All of this is happening at the same time that I continue to engage key stakeholders, meeting every single week with students and teachers to ensure that our work is grounded in and responsive to their needs. Providence schools have been struggling for decades. The system is broken, and for far too long, those in power have allowed it to languish. No more. This list represents just some of the progress that has happened in two months. Transformational change won’t happen overnight, but we are making critical improvements and laying the foundation for sustainable, long-term change in Providence. This is hard work, but there is nothing more important.”
9. On a related note, my colleague John Bender reports on the lack of diversity among the teaching corps in Providence, and the outlook for having a faculty that better reflects the student body.
10. Sen. DiPalma’s priorities for 2020 include a proposal to create a multi-state effort to buy prescription drugs. DiPalma hopes to enlist the five other New England states, New York, New Jersey and California. “If you look at those nine states, that’s 83 million people, and the focus would be on what we pay for Medicaid prescription and the prescription drugs we pay for state workers as part of their healthcare program,” he said on Bonus Q&A. As the Middletown Democrat sees it, the combined spending power would foster savings through increased leverage against pharma. DiPalma hopes to host a roundtable to advance the concept this spring.
11. Via @RI_Rank: a look at how state senators compare on their social media usage.
12. Best wishes to Rhode Island native Jennifer Duffy, who is changing gears after almost 32 years at the Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C. “The Cook Political Report would not be where it is today without Jennifer’s hard work, energy and commitment,” Charlie Cook said. “Jennifer’s contribution to the success of the CPR cannot be overstated. She will be missed.” Duffy offered this comment on her plans: “The next move is a work in progress, but if I was going to leave this cycle I had to do it now. I hope to do some consulting while I get the next act up and running. Hint: it won’t be about politics. I won’t lie, there’s a lot about covering elections I will miss, but it’s not nearly as fun or challenging as it used to be thanks to polarization.”
13. The proposal to raise gas taxes to fight climate change – aka the Transportation and Climate Initiative – could make for one of the more spirited debates during the 2020 legislative session. Supporters call TCI an important way to cut emissions. Meanwhile, the Gaspee Business Network, which oppposes TCI, wants lawmakers to declare where they stand. “Lawmakers are asked to take an official position so their constituents know where they stand,” Mike Collins, spokesman for GBN, said in a statement. “Voters are encouraged to demand their Senators and Reps go on the record about this important pocket-book issue.”
14. Seth Yurdin’s surprise decision to leave the Providence City Council accelerates the pace of change set to happen with term limits in 2022.
15. Stephanie Federico is joining Cox Communications as vice president of government and public affairs for the company’s northeast region. According to a statement from the company, “In her new role, Federico will be responsible for government affairs, media relations, employee communications and community relations in Rhode Island, Connecticut and Ohio. Most recently, she was an attorney with Harrington & Vitale, LTD and director of government affairs at Capitol City Group, LTD in Providence. ‘Stephanie brings a wealth of experience from an accomplished career as a lobbyist, litigator and public servant,’ said Jay Allbaugh, senior vice president and region manager at Cox. ‘I look forward to her ensuring Cox continues to provide the best possible experience for our employees, our communities and our customers.’ Federico formerly held the positions of chief of staff for the Providence Public School District and deputy chief of staff for then-Providence mayor, and current Rhode Island congressman, Rep. David Cicilline.”
16. Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea is set to stage an event on Monday, January 6, at 10 a.m. to recognize the 100th anniversary of Rhode Island’s ratification of the 19th Amendment, the measure that gave American women the right to vote. She also plans to announce a series of efforts through 2020 meant to boost civic literacy and engagement. According to Gorbea’s office, “The Rhode Island General Assembly ratified the 19th Amendment on January 6, 1920, on the first day of its legislative session. By August of 1920, 36 states ratified the amendment, ensuring that the right to vote could not be denied based on gender.”
17. One of the new faces to watch in 2020: Maria Rivera, who is running to be the next mayor of Central Falls (incumbent James Diossa is term-limited).
18. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, as the saying goes. So don’t feel bad if you experienced whiplash while recently perusing the op-ed page of The New York Times. On the one hand, extreme poverty is falling sharply across the globe and literacy is dramatically climbing. On the other hand, in Michiko Kakutani’s view, “Apocalypse is not yet upon our world as the 2010s draw to an end, but there are portents of disorder. The hopes nourished during the opening years of the decade — hopes that America was on a progressive path toward growing equality and freedom, hopes that technology held answers to some of our most pressing problems — have given way, with what feels like head-swiveling speed, to a dark and divisive new era.”
