The calendar flips from summer to fall, and we move ever closer to the November election. Thanks for stopping by for my weekly column. Your tips and comments are welcome, and you can follow me through the week on the twitters. Here we go.
1. Back in 2010, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Patrick Lynch likened polling results to perfume — lovely to admire, but dangerous to swallow. It was spin with an element of truth (and Lynch wound up folding his own run): polls offer a snapshot of candidates at an interval in a long campaign, but those findings are not predictions or guarantees of a particular outcome. With all that said, the poll released this week by WPRI-TV and Roger Williams University offers some good news for Gov. Gina Raimondo: the Democrat has opened a seven-point lead over Republican rival Allan Fung, although the almost-5 point margin of error means her lead could be larger or smaller. There’s a bit more than six weeks until the November election, and no one can predict unexpected events that may arise between now and then. Fung campaign spokesman Andrew Augustus reacted to the poll by noting how Raimondo has just a modest lead after spending millions of dollars in a deep blue state. “The majority of Rhode Islanders are clearly saying that they want change and that they do not want Gina Raimondo,” Augustus said. It’s true that almost 44 percent of Democratic primary voters picked someone other than Raimondo. Yet Fung’s level of support in a series of WPRI/RWU polls has to be a concern for the GOP candidate — 36.2 percent in the latest poll (the same amount he got in his 2014 battle with Raimondo), 37 percent in August, and 35.6 percent in March. That flatline raises the question of whether Fung has plateaued – and whether his campaign’s strategy of limiting reporters’ access to the candidate has been sound. (Slightly less than 10 percent of voters remain undecided, according to the new poll.) Meanwhile, a significant event in the race is coming this Thursday, when Fung, Raimondo and Republican-turned-independent Joe Trillo will clash during a 7 pm debate debate on WPRI. Heading into the debate, the key questions are whether Fung can raise his stature with voters, whether Raimondo can squelch gains by her GOP rival, and whether Trillo can raise his standing in the race.
2. Trillo took exception to how the WPRI/RWU poll showed him with just 6.7 percent of the support in the race for governor. And it’s no stretch to think Trillo has room to grow since he has the ability 1) to self-fund his campaign; and 2) to appeal to Trump voters in Rhode Island. Still, the combined slices of support among Trillo, Compassion Party candidate Anne Armstrong, Moderate Party candidate William Gilbert and independent Luis-Daniel Munoz already exceed 10 percent of the vote. That makes it likely, once again, that Rhode Island’s gubernatorial race will be won with less than 50 percent of the vote.
3. Back in 2014, Nicholas Mattiello put together the votes to win the speakership and he initially enjoyed broad support from Democrats and Republicans alike. But that seems like a long time ago now. Mattiello’s perceived strength took a serious hit when most of the candidates he backed in the September 12 primary lost their House races. This week, a member of the speaker’s leadership team, Rep. Deb Ruggiero (D-Jamestown) announced she would no longer vote for Mattiello as speaker. “What we need is a leadership team in the House that is focused on issues, respects women, and will bring bills to the floor in a timely matter,” Ruggiero said in publicizing her decision. Mattiello himself hinted that other lawmakers were likely to join the renegades while also predicting he’ll maintain the votes to win another term as speaker in January. One potential successor to Mattiello, Rep. Gregg Amore (D-East Providence), told me he will not challenge Mattiello. “I think by and large he’s done a good job and I’m supportive of him at this point,” Amore said. “I think he has the support of the majority of the [Democratic] caucus.” But it’s anyone’s guess what may change between now and January, not least because of another GOP challenge to Mattiello for his state rep seat by Cranston Republican Steve Frias.
4. Raimondo was the guest for this week’s Rhode Island Public Radio Political Roundtable and Bonus Q&A. Since her campaign has attacked Fung’s record in Cranston, I asked why 82 percent of Cranston GOP voters supported him in the September 12 primary election. “Well, of course, elections are all about choices,” she responded, “and I suppose that those voters thought that given the choices in the primary he was the best option. But I think as far as Cranston goes, the facts speak for themselves ….” Fung has hammered Raimondo on a series of botched rollouts, ranging from UHIP and Cooler and Warmer to the recent bungle when her first post-primary TV ad depicted Providence in a scene supposedly in Cranston. Should the voters be concerned about that pattern? “As I’ve said many times, with UHIP, it was a project I inherited,” Raimondo said, “and we did roll it out poorly and I’ve taken ownership for that. There was mistakes made. And we have stuck by it to turn the corner. You know, there’s always going to be mistakes, any time you do anything, but let’s look at what we’ve accomplished. For the first time in decades, we’re fixing our roads, we’re fixing our bridges. Outside your window, if we could look out the window here, you’d see a few cranes in the sky. The unemployment numbers are out – Rhode Island has the lowest unemployment rate in nearly 20 years. We’ve cut taxes every year, I’ve cut the deficit every year. The facts are the facts, Rhode Island’s on the move, and if Mayor Fung’s elected governor, he’s going to throw us and our economy into reverse.”
5. Which candidate is carrying the banner for Donald Trump in Rhode Island? That question poses a bit of a quandary for Republican candidate for governor Allan Fung. On one hand, Trump cruised to victory in Rhode Island’s GOP presidential primary in 2016 and performed well in traditionally Democratic communities like Johnston, so Fung does not want to alienate those voters. Yet Trump’s RI approval rating stands at just 31 percent in the WPRI poll, so the president could be a drag on Fung’s attempt to win over centrist independents. Groups supporting Raimondo, like the Democratic Governors Association, try to tie Fung to Trump at regular intervals. Meanwhile, indepedent Joe Trillo unabashedly supports Trump, although Trillo has been unwilling to say whether he will try to get the president to come to Rhode Island to campaign for him.
6. A report this week in Xconomy points to some good (and less than good) news for Rhode Island. On one hand, “The state, and especially its capital city, have many pieces in place to help a tech-savvy cluster take off: a revitalized downtown with exquisite architecture, thriving food and arts scenes, and a welter of academic centers, including the top-notch Rhode Island School of Design, Brown University, and the University of Rhode Island. The centerpiece is a swath of reclaimed downtown land where a freeway once ran, now dedicated to health organizations and innovation.” But: “[W]hile biotech has boomed in the Boston area just north and in other major clusters, Rhode Island’s biosciences community has shed 10 percent of its jobs since 2014, according to the BIO national trade organization. The state’s bioscience firms have drawn $43 million in venture investments in that period, but only $1 million in 2017.” Asked about this on Bonus Q&A, Gov. Raimondo pointed to the ribbon-cutting this week for Smithfield biotech firm Rubius Therapeutics: “We have Amgen, and I think that’s nearly 200 jobs for Rubius, plus or minus, and then Amgen has committed to add several hundred more jobs. These numbers fluctuate, a little bit up, a little bit down. On the whole, our economy is stronger than its been in a long time, and we just have to seize the momentum and build on these wins, like I said, of Amgen and Rubius.”
7. Robert Flanders, the Republican challenger to Democratic U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse has his work cut out, based on the WPRI/RWU finding that Whitehouse holds a 54 percent/35 percent lead over Flanders. The Republican launched a new ad this week. He challenged Whitehouse to 10 debates, with these topics: 1) Prescription Drug Prices and Affordable Health Care 2) Infrastructure 3) Education 4) The Opioid Crisis 5) Immigration 6) Foreign Policy 7) Environment & Energy 8) Jobs & the Economy 9) Judicial Appointments 10) Government Reform. But the most pertinent story related to the Senate race may be the unfolding drama involving US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. As the ProJo reported, “Flanders initially dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh as “uncorroborated allegations uncharged and uncomplained of misconduct” that are ‘not a sufficient basis to delay, much less derail his confirmation to the Supreme Court.’ But on Monday, the former state Supreme Court justice issued a new statement, bringing up former Democratic Sen. Al Franken, but changing his position to say the Judiciary Committee should hear Ford’s story.” For his part, Whitehouse critized remarks earlier in the week by President Trump: “This morning, the President said it is up to Dr. Blasey Ford to convince him she is telling the truth. That is preposterous. Her story is credible: it is rich in remembered detail, corresponds to facts that are known, and was told to others years before. The president and Republicans in the Senate should follow protocol and order the FBI to complete its background investigation as to this claim.”
8. Via Roundtable: Gov. Raimondo believes her primary campaign was mostly positive, although she defends the attack TV ad used by her campaign against Matt Brown. “He was a guy who hadn’t lived in Rhode Island for much of the last 10 or 15 years. People didn’t really know who he was. And he was holding himself out to be someone who we thought wasn’t fully accurate …. No one likes negative campaigns. I don’t either, to be honest. I don’t, but they work, sadly, no one likes them, but somehow they seem to work …. I’ve been campaigning since June — overwhelmingly positive. The vast majority of the effort of my campaign, the money of my campaign, the ads on the campaign …. but there is a clear contrast between my approach and Mayor Fung’s approach and it’s our job to bring that out.”
9. William Gilbert, the Moderate Party candidate, is firing back after being excluded from the WPRI-TV debate set for Thursday, September 27. In an email to Channel 12 (copied to media outlets), he wrote: “I believe with my acquisition of a campaign headquarters, the publishing of a volunteer campaign manager and staff, the campaign cash available being 2x the requirement, having declared a candidacy publicly and having more the 8 news organizations publishing interviews, having a campaign phone number and multi web presence and a dedicated web site that all the requirements are meet to participate in the debate.” Independent candidate Luis Daniel Munoz has also objected to being excluded. Meanwhile, our colleagues at WPRI say their decisions on who gets included are based on criteria set by their parent company.
10. West Warwick Republican Patricia Morgan lost her GOP bid for governor, and her time as House GOP leader is ticking down. Yet Morgan very much remained in the news this week, indicating that she may be open to endorsing Joe Trillo over Allan Fung and continuing a running battle with Democratic Attorney General Peter Kilmartin. Morgan accused Kilmartin of stonewalling her efforts to get information on the spending of $230 million in Google settlement money, and then heavily redacting documents released through a public records request. “My time in office has convinced me that whenever government creates a pool of money, insiders put their hands in it. Those in charge will go to great lengths to hide its misuse,” Morgan said in a statement. Kilmartin spokeswoman Amy Kempe said Morgan’s accusations were without merit, and that the AG’s office had previously provided 6,512 documents to Morgan: “The Attorney General’s Office has been 100 percent transparent with state and federal officials on the disbursement of Google settlement funds, and has complied with all state and federal regulations with regards to those funds,” Kempe said. “In fact, all expenditures are pre-approved by the Department of Justice after being vetted to ensure compliance with the strict rules on how the funds can be used. Also, the Attorney General and a member of his Finance team testified before the House Finance Committee – a committee hearing Rep. Morgan, as an ex-officio member, did not attend – regarding the Office’s budget, including detailed information on the disbursement of Google settlement funds. That testimony is still available through Capitol TV’s on-demand service.”
11. Former state Rep. Doug Gablinske, who represented District 68 for two terms, is seeking a comeback, in House District 69 — the seat now held by Rep. Susan Donovan (D-Bristol). Gablinske said he’s running as an independent because, he said, the Democratic Party has moved too far to the left. What’s more, he thinks the House is just a few seats from “tipping to progressive socialist leadership.” (He points to support for Bernie Sanders as evidence of socialistic beliefs.) Gablinske, who has the support of the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, believes he was redistricted out of his old district in a move meant to discourage from running in 2012. The District 69 seat was held at the time by Ray Gallison, who wound up in prison. Now, Gablinske believes, he’s a better fit for the voters of the district. Donovan, on the other hand, has won the support of progressive groups like the RI Working Families Party.
12. The Chepachet resident who used a noose to hang an Allan Fung campaign sign said he was frustrated by Fung’s decision to mostly avoid debates during the primary and did not mean to send a hateful message. “Listening to him, he’s very upset,” Joe Trillo told reporters after the man stopped by his Warwick office. “I don’t think he realized the consequences, or the reaction that people were going to get to what he did. And I think he feels as though he didn’t mean for the negative reaction — he just is so upset with Mayor Fung’s” decision to mostly not debate during the primary, “that this is the way he chose to show his expression.”
13. PawSox-related findings depend heavily on how questions are phrased. With that in mind, consider these details from the WPRI/RWU poll: “The survey of 420 likely voters finds only 38% think Rhode Island leaders should have offered more taxpayer support to keep the team in Pawtucket, while 51% say they made the correct decision by refusing. About one in 10 voters aren’t sure … The survey results are a vindication of sorts for Mattiello, who has faced vociferous criticism from some quarters for dragging his feet on the PawSox issue and then backing legislation the team would not support. The speaker has said repeatedly he did not believe Rhode Island taxpayers were comfortable with a major generous offer. The only subgroup of voters that supported offering more taxpayer support to keep the team was Republicans, with 47% in favor and 42% opposed. But the margin of error for the GOP is much larger than it is for the overall poll because Rhode Island has so few registered Republican voters. The results are similar to those in a February poll Fleming conducted that was commissioned by union groups which supported the ballpark. That poll found 53% of voters opposed using taxpayers’ money to build a new stadium, though 75% said they wanted leaders to work together to keep the team in Rhode Island.”
14. Rest in Peace, Charles Rappleye, the well-regarded author of “Sons of Providence: the Brown Brothers, the Slave Trade, and the American Revolution,” and the brother of WJAR-TV political reporter Bill Rappleye, and condolences to his family.
15. A poignant read from former ProJo staffer M.J. Andersen on the fading newspaper landscape. Excerpt: “These days, one of two predictions is generally advanced. The first is that newspapers will weather the current upheaval and emerge with a new “business model.” This restructuring will involve finally, somehow, getting readers and advertisers to pay adequately for a product available in both in print and digital form. The favored expression for this elusive magic is ‘monetize’: if only newspapers knew how to monetize all this great reporting, writing, editing … all this hidden toil, the fruits of which people now expect to see on the internet for free. In this vision of the future, more newspapers will perhaps become nonprofits, deriving most of their support from readers, foundations and philanthropists. The other, much darker view is that newspapers will simply die, in a process no one knows how to stop. In this view, what is happening to newspapers resembles climate change.”
16. Do prolific fundraisers like Gov. Raimondo protest too much when they talk about how they don’t like raising money? During Bonus Q&A, I asked Raimondo if she’s taken any steps to lessen the influence of money in Rhode Island politics. She responded by saying she’s backed legislation that would introduce spot audits of campaign fiance accounts. “I think there should be audits every single year, on a regular basis, at random. It would keep everybody honest. I don’t think you should be able to stand for an election, put your name on the ballot, if you have outstanding fees. I would support something that says no fundraising during the legislative session for any of us.” (The absence of spot election audits was an issue raised by RIPR a few years ago in a case involving Rep. Joe Almeida, a Providence Democrat, but it has not moved ahead in the legislature.)
17. Remember the Hurricane of ’38?
18. Jeff Weaver, who ran Bernie Sanders’ insurgent 2016 presidential campaign, speaks at 5 p.m.Monday at Brown University’s Joukowsky Forum (Watson Institute, 111 Thayer Street, Providence). He’s slates to discuss his book, “How Bernie Won: Inside the Revolution That’s Taking Back Our Country – And Where We Go From Here.” Blurb: In How Bernie Won, Weaver shows how Bernie sparked a movement that would sweep America and inspire millions. He vowed not to run a negative campaign. He would focus on policies, not personalities. He would not be beholden to big money. He would actually make America work for ordinary people.” Incidentally, the campaign manager for Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, Joe Caiazzo, was Sanders’ RI field and political director in 2016.
19. Rhode Island Public Radio’s main signal, now at 89.3 FM, is better than ever, covering most of Rhode Island and the south coast of Massachusetts. Our chief engineer, Aaron Read, offers a detailed explanation on what’s happening on the tech side.
20. The Atlantic raises this question: Is democracy dying? Back in 1992, before the Internet was a thing, Chicago Tribune columnist Bob Greene offered this perspective: “In a subtle way, there appears to be an erosion of the public conviction that the process works. It’s not just that the filthy turn politics have taken has dismayed people, although that certainly has contributed to the public mood. Throughout history there have been personal attacks on public people, the vilest of charges have been recklessly leveled, and the republic has survived. What has changed is that the dissemination of the filth has become so easy, so legitimized. The technology is in place to take a rumor that has been started on a Monday night, and to broadcast it around the world live into millions of homes by Tuesday morning. At the very latest. And the public has been conditioned to treat the facile assasination of the characters of public men and women as just another entertainment. As much as the people complain, there is no real indication that they are ready to have it any other way. A heavily promoted national television debate among the Democrats seeking the presidential nomination drew fewer voters than the lowest rated of all the entertainment shows on TV that week.”
