The first televised debate in the presidential election is Monday evening. There will be just two candidates on stage, Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump.
That leaves out a pair of third party candidates, and it’s inspired RIPR political analyst Scott MacKay to consider the role of third parties in American politics.
The 2016 presidential campaign has scrambled American politics and punctured the totems and rituals of campaign journalism. The Beltway know-it-alls have proven they don’t much of anything. Neither the pundits nor the pols saw the rise of Donald Trump or the tough challenge Sen. Bernie Sanders would give Hillary Clinton.
As the sweepstakes enters the home stretch, public opinion surveys show both candidates carry very high negatives. Young voters, especially, are wary. We don’t know yet whether this is temporary Millennial idealism that by November will evolve into realism. Some of these avid Sanders supporters say they will vote for either the Green Party’s Jill Stein or Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.
On the other side are some Republican voters who have a hard time with Trump, but can’t swallow Clinton. The polls, which pinball around day by day in this year of discontent, show a healthy slice of voters considering casting a third-party ballot.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll showed that 29 percent of millennial voters would vote for Johnson, a former New Mexico governor, if the election were held today. That may change by election day, particularly because neither Stein nor Johnson will be on the debate stage Monday night nor in the two future face-offs.
Ok, so Johnson is a self-acknowledged stoner who calls for legalizing marijuana. But young voters should look beyond their bongs and study what Johnson’s Libertarian Party actually proposes. According to the party’s platform, it would mean an end to social security and Medicare, getting rid of environmental regulations and doing away with public schools.
It’s difficult to believe Sanders voters would fall for this stuff. Neither peacenik Stein nor Johnson has been subject to much media scrutiny, so it’s no big surprise that voters don’t know where they actually stand.
Third parties have carved an important role in American political history. Much of Norman Thomas’s 1932 Socialist Party Platform, which called for social security and an end to child labor, was adopted by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal during the nadir of the Depression. In 1992, Ross Perot’s third-party candidacy put the spotlight on government spending and led Congress to enact the Balanced Budget Amendment and overhaul welfare programs.
Yet, in recent history, third parties have been more nuisance than novelty. Perot’s campaign famously drained enough votes from Republican George H.W. Bush’s re-election campaign that it helped elect Democrat Bill Clinton. In 2000, Ralph Nader’s third-party quest siphoned enough votes from Democrat Al Gore to push Republican George W. Bush into the presidency.
Consider what Nader did in just one small New England state, New Hampshire, that tilted the election from Gore to Bush. Nader harvested about 25,000 votes in New Hampshire, a state Gore lost by about 7,000. Had Gore carried the Granite State, he would have had 271 electoral votes, enough to claim the White House. There would have been no Florida recount, no Supreme Court battle and arguably, no Iraq War.
The nation’s founders didn’t trust the average voter, so they set up the electoral college system that ensured that leaders of the community would cast the ultimate votes for president, regardless of the popular vote total.
With two exceptions – Maine and Nebraska – every state allocates its electoral votes under the winner-take all system. This has the effect of enshrining the two-party system in electing a president. In modern times no one who isn’t a Republican or Democrat has moved into the White House. Yet the presence of third parties has deprived the winner of the majority of the vote.
Because the polls have bounced around so much, it isn’t clear whether Clinton or Trump will win. But it will be one or the other, and not Stein or Johnson.
To vote for the Libertarian or Green parties, you have to think that there is no difference between Clinton and Trump. Ask yourself: Do you really believe that?
Scott MacKay’s commentary can be heard every Monday on Morning Edition at 6:45 and 8:45 and on All Things Considered at 5:44. You can also follow his political reporting and commentary at the `On Politics’ blog at RIPR.org