Rhode Island’s primary election is almost here, and there’s a lot on the line — and a hurricane may land around mid-week, potentially suppressing turnout. Thanks for stopping by for my weekly column. As usual, your tips and comments are welcome, and you can follow me through the week on the twitters. Here we go.
1. The big question for Rhode Island’s statewide primary: will there be one or more upsets? Gov. Gina Raimondo‘s campaign has spent millions of dollars while trying to set the stage for the Democrat to win a second term. With a lack of comparable funds, Matt Brown has fought an energetic David vs. Goliath battle against the incumbent, benefitting from his campaign experience, outsider message and strong communication skills. So a few different outcomes are possible, ranging from a relatively strong or narrow victory by Raimondo to an upset by Brown. There’s likely some level of frustration for the governor, her team and her supporters that the uptick in Rhode Island’s economy over recent years hasn’t translated into a palpable boomlet of enthusiasm for the incumbent. Then again, Massachusetts Republican Charlie Baker routinely polls as the most popular governor in the nation, and far-right primary challenger Scott Lively still got 36 percent of the vote in his battle with Baker. (Back in Rhode Island, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung remains the favorite on the GOP side of the race for governor, although Patricia Morgan has been pushing hard, even with a lack of comparable funds.) Brown’s campaign hopes to enjoy the same kind of surprise outcome epitomized by Ayanna Pressley, who is on track to become the first black woman sent by Massachusetts voters to Congress. Unlike Brown, however, Pressley has been a visible presence on her home turf for years, she won election in a minority-majority district, and despite all the hoopla, congressional upsets remain very rare. Ultimately, Rhode Island’s primary will either keep Raimondo on her upward political trajectory (at least in the short term) or deal a stern rebuke to the Ocean State’s first woman governor.
2. Matt Brown is running against the status quo — and that message offers appeal for frustated people. “I believe the system we have isn’t working for people,” Brown said during a Democratic gubernatorial debate at Rhode Island Public Radio this week. “The cost of things people need — healthcare, housing, education for their kids — have gone through the roof, and wages have stayed the same. And that means that life is getting harder for people, and it continues to get harder for people. And the problem is that government isn’t even doing anything about it, because government is working for Wall Street and for corporations.” I asked Brown why, if he cares so much about these issues, he waited until April — less than six months ago — to launch his campaign. He responded by saying he was occupied with Global Zero, the nonprofit he helped establish in Washington, D.C., before returning with his family to Rhode Island in 2012. Still, it’s worth noting that Brown was absent from Rhode Island’s political scene until he floated his potential campaign in March — a time by which Gov. Raimondo‘s potential vulnerability was apparent. During the debate, long-shot Democrat Spencer Dickinson criticized Brown as someone who can point to problems, but who lacks effective solutions. Brown responded by saying he has a record of making a difference for the better. (Raimondo, who declined an invitation to take part in the debate, has touted her own record on jobs and the economy.)
3. Cranston Mayor Allan Fung remains the favorite on the Republican side of the gubernatorial race, although his top GOP rival, Patricia Morgan, has been pushing hard, pointing frequently to Fung’s decision to mostly not engage with reporters and debates during the primary. Lacking as much campaign cash as Fung, Morgan has responded with a series of proposals: having Ken Block (who is not endorsing in the race) volunteer to seek waste and fraud in the state’s temporary disability insurance program and putting former GOP gubernatorial candidate John Robitaille to work as RI’s next Commerce secretary. (Through his campaign, Fung said he’d bring Block in with a broader mandate, to look at the UHIP issue. Added Fung in a statement: “I don’t feel as though promising jobs six days before a primary election is a great way to run a campaign or a government. As an insider on Smith Hill, this is the only way that Rep. Morgan knows. I respect John Robitaille. However, as he did enthusiastically support the 38 Studios deal during his run for Governor, he would not be at the top of my list to head up the Commerce Department.”) Meanwhile, Giovanni Feroce continues to make his case for GOP votes.
4. The latest jobs report shows that the U.S. economy added more than 200,000 jobs in August. How much worse would things be for President Trump and Governor Raimondo if the economy was tanking?
5. I caught up with Matt Brown and Gov. Raimondo on the campaign trail for a look at how they’re making the case to voters. Brown has hammered Raimondo’s efforts, including the signature pension overhaul she spearheaded as state treasurer in 2011, while trying to assemble a broader coalition of voters seeking an alternative. In contrast to the image held by some of the the governor’s critics, Raimondo makes a personable impression while campaigning, in some cases with Democratic stalwarts like Jack Reed and Patrick Kennedy. She continues to tout progress on the economy, her stand against the Trump administration and other efforts: “Right now in Rhode Island, we’re fixing the roads, people are back to work, CCRI is affordable, we’re continuing to protect your healthcare. Since I’ve been in governor, I’ve twice doubled money that we give to senior centers.” (Separately, in the nasty race to end to the primary, Brown accused Raimondo (without offering evidence) of engaging in pay to play politics; Raimondo’s campaign pointed out how Brown’s campaign owes $286,835 — about three times the $91,760 left in his campaign account.)
6. A $1,000 contribution by House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello to Michael Earnheart, who supported Donald Trump in 2016, confirms the narrative that Mattiello supports the defeat of Rep. Moira Walsh (D-Providence), a sometimes-outspoken critic. Mattiello’s campaign spokeswoman, Patti Doyle, offered this explanation for why the speaker is backing the challenger: “The speaker has supported many female candidates and representatives over the years and makes his decisions on whom to support on a case by case basis. Michael Earnheart certainly supports his pro-business agenda and further, the speaker believes he is a far better candidate to move the state’s economy forward, which is his top priority.” The RI Democratic Party pulled back an endorsement for Earnheart after a backlash in July, but he’s reportedly aggressively working the doors hard in his effort to beat Walsh. The incumbent responsed to the speaker’s contribution to her rival by asking her supporters to dig a little deeper. (Background: my on-the-ground report from August on the Walsh-Earnheart primary.)
7. Some other top Democratic legislative primaries to watch (in no particular order): HOUSE Rebecca Kislak and Mark Tracy are squaring off over the Providence rep seat being vacated by Aaron Regunberg …. Providence Rep. Marcia Ranglin-Vassell, who ousted John DeSimone in 2016, is trying to repel a challenge by PC professor Holly Coolman …. Providence Rep. Dan McKiernan and challenger Belen Florez have a fight on their hands …. Can Mario Mendez get past freshman Providence Rep. Ramon Perez? …. Pawtucket Rep. Carlos Tobon faces Jonathan Vallecilla …. Liana Cassar and John Chung square off for the seat being vacated by Barrinton Rep. Joy Hearn …. SENATE Providence Sen. Paul Jabour‘s battles with Nicholas Autiello and Sam Bell …. two-way in EP for the seat being vacated by Dan DaPonte features Val Lawson and Delmar Condinho …. Melanie Dupont is taking on Sen. Stephen Archambault of Smithfield; Stephen Tocco is also running …. lawyer Kevin Heitke and enviro activist Paul Roselli square off over the seat being vacated by Sen. Paul Fogarty of Glocester …. Mark McKenney looks to oust progressive Sen. Jeanine Calkin in Warwick.
8. It was almost 20 years ago that Hillary Clinton visited Cumberland High School to speak about school violence after the massacre at Columbine. The shooting death this week of 15-year-old William Parsons is a grim reminder of how, even with school shootings in mostly suburban communities, young people in American cities like Providence face the greatest threat of gun violence. (State Rep. Marcia Ranglin-Vassell, D-Providence, has called on the legislature to reconvene to consider her proposal for a 13-member commission studying the impact of children’s exposure to traumatic violence. “Schools are sacred places of teaching and learning so this public health tragedy is hard on our community,” Ranglin-Vassell said in a statement. “Families must send their children to school and know that they will return home. We must invest in the core urban areas. Poverty and structural racism is the root cause of this tragedy, like so many others. Easy access to guns and ammunition must stop. It cannot be that easy for kids to get guns.”)
9. In the countdown to the campaign, Matt Brown‘s campaign said he’s staging a walk across the state, from its northern border to the southern coast to court votes. “This election is ultimately about democracy, and what’s going to matter more here: the people of our state, or the corporate money that has tilted our system in favor of the wealthy and well-connected for so long,” Brown said in a statement. “Governor Raimondo has the money, but our campaign has always had the people in our corner. So over the next week, we’re going to walk from Woonsocket to Westerly and talk to as many people as we can about how we plan to end corporate control of our state, and deliver our democracy back to Rhode Islanders.” …. Meanwhile, state Sen. Gayle Goldin (D-Providence), Patrick Quinn, executive president of SEIU 1199NE, Linda Finn of the RI Coalition Against Gun Violence, and Amanda Skinner, CEO of Planned Parenthood Votes! RI were among those staging a Statehouse rally in support of Raimondo on Friday. Said Finn, “Governor Raimondo’s primary challenger is a hypocrite who would run our state right back into the ditch we were in four years ago. Matt Brown he can’t manage a campaign budget, much less our state’s. He wrote the book on corrupt fundraising in 2006 when he raised money into Hawaii, then sent it right back to himself to skirt RI campaign finance laws. We need to re-elect Gina Raimondo, a proven leader and the only Democrat who can beat Allan Fung in November.” Raimondo is also picking up an endorsement from Everytown for Gun Safety, and she plans to take part in a series of events in Providence and Pawtucket, and perhaps elsewhere, over the weekend.
10. In the primary for lieutenant governor, will the benefits of incumbency help keep Lt. Gov. Dan McKee in office, or will progressives, combined with on-the-ground organizing, propel Aaron Regunberg into the office? Regunberg has won a string of union endorsements, while McKee has the support of a number of municipal officials in the Blackstone Valley. Gov. Raimondo endorsed McKee, while Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza is backing Regunberg.
11. U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat, was front and center during confirmation hearings this week for U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Whitehouse said his findings prove a clear tilt in one direction: “A review of Brett Kavanaugh’s jurisprudence on the D.C. Circuit reveals that in the most controversial and salient civil cases — those decided by bare 2–1 majorities — when Kavanaugh is in the majority with another Republican-appointed judge, he votes to advance far-right and corporate interests a striking 91 percent of the time.” Esquire’s Charlie Pierce gives the senator a rave.
12. Republican Robert Flanders is increasing his focus on Sen. Whitehouse. This week, Flanders staged a news conference in Burrillville to announce his opposition to Invenergy’s controversial proposal for a gas-fired energy plant. Flanders said he was undecided on the issue until he spoke with local residents. Now, he said, he believes residents lacked “an adequate role in the approval process,” and he points to negative environmental impacts that would come with the plant. “When I am your next U.S. Senator, there is no city or town too small to matter, and no voice is too insignificant to be heard,” Flanders said in a statement. “Senator Whitehouse claims to be an opponent of fossil fuel energy and an advocate for the environment. And there is nowhere closer to home than right here in Burrillville.” Whitehouse has declined to take a stance on the Invenergy proposal. In an interview with RIPR last year, he called the matter a decision for the state to decide: “It’s one that is the area where it’s really not appropriate to try to bring political influence to bear. It is in a quasi-judicial body,” the state Energy Facility Siting Board. “…. We can’t win the battle that we need to fight one facility at a time, I don’t believe …. In the Senate, I have the ability, I think, to actually find a way to tip the discussion towards a solution to the climate change problem that will make the Invenergy project and a lot of others have a whole different aspect to them once you’ve got a proper price on carbon and once you’re no longer subsidizing these big fossil fuel plants.”
13. RIPR’s Scott MacKay moderated a debate this week with most of the candidates for mayor of Providence. You can listen to the full audio here.
14. Gov. Raimondo ran the table in the state’s most vote-rich communities in 2014, squeaking by Angel Taveras (then the mayor of Providence) in the capital city by a bit more than 250 votes, and scoring wins in Johnston, Newport, Woonsocket, Cranston, Pawtucket, Warwick, Cumberland, East Providence and North Providence. These will be key communities to watch on Wednesday night. One of the best margins for Raimondo in 2014 came in Cumberland — she got 3,150 votes, compared with 1,684 for Clay Pell and 1,537 for Taveras. Warwick offered another one of Raimondo’s best margins: she got 4,387 votes there, compared with 3,202 for Pell and 2,745 for Taveras.
15. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican, won endorsements this week from a string of independent and Democratic mayors, including Fall River’s Jasiel Correia. “Governor Baker and Lt. Governor Polito are leading by example, with the kind of bipartisan leadership our Commonwealth needs for growth and progress,” Correia said in a statement distributed by Baker’s campaign. “They have especially demonstrated their commitment to the South Coast, from improvements to our state pier, and taking a significant step towards rail to Boston, after years of promises. Governor Baker and Lt. Governor Polito have championed Fall River and deserve our support for four more years.”
16. Interesting read (h/t Sam Howard) on Ayanna Pressley‘s upset win this week over longtime Massachusetts congressman Michael Capuano. Excerpt: “A city that has become mostly a collection of highly-educated cosmopolitan whites and politically mobilized racial minorities is potentially fertile ground for candidates with Pressley’s profile—and, in fact, the most remarkable thing about this race might be how long it took for these population shifts to translate into political change. The Somerville of the 1990s was still home to a significant blue-collar “white ethnic” vote that elected Capuano mayor before helping to send him to Congress in the first place; the Somerville of today is a rapidly gentrifying satellite of the Tufts and Harvard campuses that nearly opted for Pressley over its erstwhile favorite son.”
17. RIPEC snagged a hot headliner for its 75th annual meeting, on October 1: Washington Post reporter and author Bob Woodward, whose new book on the Trump administration has caused a firestorm in DC.
18. The other firestorm: Is an op-ed published in The New York Times by an anoymous Trump administration official an act of courage or cowardice? Excerpt: “The root of the problem is the president’s amorality. Anyone who works with him knows he is not moored to any discernible first principles that guide his decision making. Although he was elected as a Republican, the president shows little affinity for ideals long espoused by conservatives: free minds, free markets and free people. At best, he has invoked these ideals in scripted settings. At worst, he has attacked them outright.”
19. Mike Stenhouse of the Rhode Island Center for Freedom & Prosperity offers a reminder that voters can use their primary ballot strategically: “I will likely cast my vote in the Democrat primary this year. As conservatives, let’s be smart and strategic with our votes, especially when other center-right groups in Rhode Island are similarly asking their supporters to consider their options. Your primary vote could realistically make difference in races involving a progressive candidate. And also remember, that if a progressive candidate wins in the primary, you will have another chance to cast a second vote for or against him or her in November. ALSO, if you do vote in a party primary, remember that you can immediately disaffiliate again before leaving the polling place on Wednesday, September 12. The decision is yours, but our Center is pleased to be able to advise you might be able to maximize your legal voting power.”
20. From The Woman Project: “On Sunday, September 30, hundreds of Rhode Islanders will appear in a full page signature ad in the state’s oldest, major, statewide daily print newspaper. Among the signatories are local clergy, educators, lawmakers, physicians, parents –all voters — concerned that, despite the consistent 2-1 majority of Rhode Islanders who support reproductive freedom, state legislators choose to treat abortion rights as disposable by ignoring the Reproductive Health Care Act. The full page color advertisement can be signed by anyone who wishes to express support for national access to reproductive health care. WE WILL NOT GO BACK TO THE OLD DAYS!
WE SHALL EXPRESS OUT FERVOR AT THE BALLOT BOX! For anyone interested in signing signatures are still being collected up until September 14th.”
